Does Auburn have another Chris Davis on the squad that can stun the Crimson Tide at the very last second to beat them in that fashion for the second straight year? I sure hope so. Although Auburn did get back in the win column, they did a lot of slogging around in what was a fairly ugly 31-7 win over FCS Samford. Believe it or not, Samford was actually ahead 7-0 midway through the second quarter. Like their Iron Bowl counterparts, Alabama sorta did the same in their 48-14 win against another FCS team in Western Carolina. They fell behind 7-0 and led only 17-14 midway through the second period before taking command. Both teams will be looking for quicker starts in this game. Last year's Iron Bowl was a game for the ages. Alabama led 21-7 late in the second quarter and seemed like they may be ready to take control in the 4th quarter after a long 99 yard touchdown pass from now Cincinnati Bengal A.J. McCarron to superstar WR Amari Cooper which broke a 21-21 tie. However, Nick Marshall found a wide open Sammie Coates down the sideline to tie the game at 28 with just under 40 seconds left before Chris Davis returned a missed field goal from the back of the end zone to get Auburn an exciting 34-28 win and a regular season SEC championship.
Kicking issues rued that day for Alabama as their regular kicker, Cade Foster, missed three field goals. Two were shanked to the left, the last one was blocked. He didn't even try the 59 yard attempt which was returned by Davis. That honor went to current Crimson Tide kicker Adam Griffith; and the rest was history. Unfortunately we can't spend all the rest of time just living in that moment. Sooner or later, we have to focus on this upcoming game between the two long time rivals. Alabama enters this Iron Bowl with a 10-1 record, 6-1 in SEC play. Their lone loss came on the road against Ole Miss by a score of 23-17. Road wins this season have come over Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU. Home wins have come over the likes of Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Western Carolina while their lone neutral site game came in Atlanta, which was a 10 point win over West Virginia. The Crimson Tide also lead the all-time Iron Bowl series by a count of 42-35-1. But Auburn's last two wins have been quite thrilling; the other coming in 2010... the 'Camback' at Bryant Denny Stadium in which Auburn rallied from a 24-0 deficit to win. That 2010 Auburn team led by Cam Newton would go on to win the national championship.
Auburn's defense will need to come up with by far their best performance of the season to have any chance in Tuscaloosa. The player who will very likely give them the most trouble is Amari Cooper. Forget the 99 yard score from a year ago, Auburn's pass defense has been so poor of late against receivers nowhere near as good as Cooper is, so he presents a real nightmare problem. Getting him the ball will be senior QB Blake Sims. Most people didn't actually expect Sims to be the starting QB for this team prior to the season. A lot of people thought it would be Florida State transfer Jacob Coker, who spent last season backing up Jameis Winston. He's done a nice job this season, completing 62 percent of his passes on 301 attempts to go along with 20 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. And yes, A LOT of his production has been tossed Amari Cooper's way. Cooper has caught 90 passes for 1349 yards and 11 TD catches. I imagine he'll be part of the 2015 NFL Draft class even though he could come back to college for another year as he's giving NFL scouts images of A.J. Green and another former Alabama player, Julio Jones. Those 1349 yards represent more than half of the 2674 yards Sims has thrown for. Alabama's second most productive receiver has been senior DeAndrew White, whose stats are nowhere close to Cooper's. He has 30 receptions for 319 yards and 2 TD catches. Blake Sims, by the way, has added 279 yards and 5 touchdown rushes on the ground, so this is a guy capable of making things happen with his legs. When Sims isn't throwing to Cooper or rushing for touchdowns, he hands off to two excellent running backs in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who have split the heavy workload amongst themselves this season. The junior Yeldon has rushed for 758 yards and 6 touchdowns on 151 yards while the sophomore Henry has rushed for 682 yards and 7 TD runs on 134 carries. At 224 and 241 yards respectively, these two bring a massive punch for opposing defenses who dare try getting in their way. Yeldon may join Cooper as a first round pick in the 2015 Draft if he also decides to come out after this season.
Contending with the offense will be a tough chore for Auburn, but the offense will have about as tough a chore against the Crimson Tide defense. The Tide defense gives up an average of just 14.5 points per game, which is good for second best in the FBS. Only the Ole Miss defense has given up less per game at 13.5 points per game. Alabama's defense is also second in the FBS in terms of yards given up per game rushing, allowing just a touch over 85 yards per game. Only Penn State's defense gives up less rushing yards per game at 81.5; but that comes against lesser competition. The pass defense isn't bad either, being in the top 30 in terms of yards given up per game. This team gets outstanding all-around performance rather than just counting on a single player, but the three standouts to me (at least in terms of actual production) would be linebackers Xzavier Dickson and Reggie Ragland and the biggest standout, safety Landon Collins. Dickson has had himself a very nice senior season, leading the Tide in sacks with 7 and also in tackles for loss with 9.5. Reggie Ragland seems to be following the leads of guys like Rolando McClain, Donta Hightower, C.J. Mosley and other recent Alabama inside linebackers to the NFL. He's recorded 8.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks to go along with an interception and 83 total tackles in his junior season. There have been some very good safeties from Alabama to go to the NFL in recent seasons, including Mark Barron and Ha Ha (Lol yes, that's what football people know him by) Clinton-Dix. However, the best one of the bunch may well be Collins. The junior safety has recorded three interceptions to go along with five pass breakups, eight pass breakups, 2.5 tackles for loss and 75 total tackles this season. Like Cooper (and maybe Yeldon), there's no doubt Collins will hear his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft like Barron and Clinton-Dix did in years past. I'd imagine most likely in this coming class as well.
Look, as an Auburn fan through and through, I hope like hell that the Tigers win this game. However, I've seen nothing over the last five weeks that tells me it's gonna happen. I think this Alabama team could be had if this Auburn team could actually play mistake free football, but mistake after mistake has been a major problem and a big reason why Auburn has lost three of their last six games and why a once very promising season looks as though it could end up as nothing more than a Music City Bowl invitation at the beginning of December. I'll be a little nice and say Auburn keeps it closer than three touchdowns, but that's about as far as I'm willing to go. Alabama is just playing leaps and bounds better on both sides of the ball and I very much doubt they'll make the same mistakes Auburn makes week in and week out. This should lead to them keeping their spot amongst the top 4 teams in the inaugural college football playoff. Hoping to be wrong, but....
My Call: Alabama 38, Auburn 20
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