LSU at Texas A&M
Although I am a fan of another SEC team, I honestly haven't the faintest idea of who to pick in this game since I believe these are very evenly matched teams given the venue. In a throw of the dart, I'll take Texas A&M. LSU has sorta owned the Aggies in their first two seasons in the SEC. Maybe the third time will be the charm? That's a popular saying anyway, so we'll roll with it here.
My Call: Texas A&M 30, LSU 27
Nebraska at Iowa
Under most circumstances, I'd be saying Nebraska has Ameer Abdullah while a team like Iowa doesn't and that's what would make the difference. Not this week. Hawkeyes take it. Nebraska is just a consistent 4 loss team under Bo Pelini. Another common saying is those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, or in this case, realize history doesn't lie.
My Call: Iowa 26, Nebraska 24
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan
Western Michigan will have some supporters from Toledo, Ohio pulling them on in this one since the Rockets own the tiebreaker over the Broncos, but lost to Northern Illinois. The Huskies can clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game with a win here while the Broncos would need a win as well as a Toledo loss. Because I like to predict some craziness, I'll take Western Michigan to make the first part happen. I'm expecting a fun, high scoring game that may need more than 60 minutes.
My Call: Western Michigan 40, Northern Illinois 37
Central Florida at South Florida
Bad loss on the road against UConn, but the Knights seem to have turned things around in the past couple of weeks against more bad competition. They'll win number three in a row and keep hope alive of winning the American Athletic Conference crown outright. They will need both Memphis and Cincinnati to trip up along with winning this one and on the road against East Carolina to make that happen. Gotta take care of the first step though, and as I said, they will.
My Call: Central Florida 23, South Florida 13
Houston at SMU
For SMU, they're looking to avoid the total embarrassment of a winless season. Houston is just looking to avoid the humiliation of losing to a team like this. I'm gonna say it won't always be pretty for the Cougs, but that they avoid the humiliation and get their seventh win of the year.
My Call: Houston 34, SMU 14
Toledo at Eastern Michigan
Road games have been more of a chore for Toledo this season, but Eastern Michigan is, if not the worst team in the MAC, very likely the second worst behind Kent State. As mentioned above, Toledo is hoping for some help from Western Michigan. If they get that and win this game, they'll be the ones taking on Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game. If Northern Illinois wins, well, they've still got a shot at a 7-1 conference mark and a 9 win overall season (counting the bowl game). The Rockets get to 7-1 in MAC play for sure.
My Call: Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 24
Navy at South Alabama
Bowl eligibility can come for the Midshipmen in this one with a win. Or if they lose, it would set up an all or nothing military showdown with Army. I don't expect it to have to come down to that. Navy and their option offense should give South Alabama enough trouble to pull out the win and a ticket punched to San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl come bowl season.
My Call: Navy 34, South Alabama 31
Virginia at Virginia Tech
Here's a game I think I hate having to pick more than the LSU/Texas A&M game. Neither of these teams inspires a whole lot of confidence in me and I can't even use the home venue to really prop up the Hokies too much given that they haven't performed too well in Lane Stadium this season. With this in mind, there's a lot at stake in this game between two 5-6 teams. Obviously the winner becomes bowl eligible while the loser will not make a bowl game. Virginia coach Mike London may need this more than anyone in order to try and save his job. The Hokies have won every meeting since 2004. With the games these two played last week, give me... Virginia Tech. I know I'll regret this. Every time I pick these guys to win, they usually end up losing and when I pick them to lose, they surprise me and figure out a way to win. Probably good news for the Cavaliers here in their quest for their first Commonwealth Cup victory in 10 years.
My Call: Virginia Tech 13, Virginia 10
Cincinnati at Temple
Stakes here include a shot for the Bearcats to keep conference title hopes alive and well while for Temple, it's just looking for that thus far elusive sixth win and bowl eligibility. I'm not that confident in this selection, but Cincinnati seems like the right way to lean here. Their defense sucks, but the Owls don't have a wonderful offense and Gunner Kiel should be able to get his stats.
My Call: Cincinnati 31, Temple 24
West Virginia at Iowa State
Interesting setup for this game as West Virginia is looking to snap a three game losing skid and avoid dropping to .500 while the Cyclones have what will be their best chance to avoid a winless season in Big 12 play. ISU still has one more Big 12 game after this, but that game comes on the road against TCU. Yeah, better win this one or else it's looking like 0 for the Big 12. In what will be a bit of a struggle for the Mountaineers, they'll use their offense to offset a struggling defense and pull through.
My Call: West Virginia 41, Iowa State 31
Rice at Louisiana Tech
Overtime loss to Old Dominion by Louisiana Tech this past Saturday kept the door ajar for Rice to step in and steal the Conference USA Western division title and give them a chance to play Marshall in the C-USA title game. However, we think the Bulldogs will make up for that loss and finish the job on their home field. Granted not by a lot, but it's not like that matters too much.
My Call: Louisiana Tech 31, Rice 28
Illinois at Northwestern
Not only is bowl eligibility at stake for these 5-6 in-state conference rivals, but so is the Land of Lincoln Trophy. Illini coach Tim Beckman may need this game to save his job, but we're gonna go with the Wildcats since they're at home and have the better, more proven head coach in Pat Fitzgerald. Plus after winning on the road the last two weeks, I think Northwestern has come a bit too far to let bowl eligibility slip away at this point.
My Call: Northwestern 28, Illinois 20
Purdue at Indiana
First B1G (Big 10) win of the season for Indiana? Yes, let's predict it to happen. That and a second straight win to keep the Old Oaken Bucket Trophy in their possession is enough to play for.
My Call: Indiana 37, Purdue 34
North Carolina State at North Carolina
Got a game here where although both will be going to bowls, the actual game against each other may prove to be the one both would rather prefer to win. After all, nobody wants to lose to an in-state rival. I'm letting the home field dictate this pick for me and taking UNC in a high scorer.
My Call: North Carolina 42, North Carolina State 35
Syracuse at Boston College
Gonna make it simple... although Boston College may not have a wonderful team, they have showed well against quality competition, including this past Saturday's last second loss to FSU. Syracuse is not a quality opponent. Although the sting of losing to the Seminoles may mean it'll take the Eagles some time to get going in this one, they'll get it going, pick up win number seven on the season and perhaps move up a bit in the bowl pecking order.
My Call: Boston College 24, Syracuse 7
Utah at Colorado
Colorado winning this game wouldn't flat out shock me, but I don't have the guts to make the pick. The Utes have the better team and will win provided they show up ready to play.
My Call: Utah 30, Colorado 20
Notre Dame at USC
Pretenders tend to get exposed, and that's what has happened to Notre Dame these last three weeks as they have lost to Arizona State, Northwestern and Louisville and seen a once promising season go completely up in flames. They'll still go to a bowl game, but it won't be anything they had envisioned a month ago. Meanwhile, USC is coming off a blowout loss to inner city rival UCLA. That said, having another rival at home should help them overcome that loss. And so will Notre Dame's vulnerability; they look pretty bad these days. USC won't make it easy, but they'll win.
My Call: USC 31, Notre Dame 24
Rutgers at Maryland
Maryland. Yes, that's basically all I have to say. They're the better team and at home.
My Call: Maryland 34, Rutgers 23
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Second straight year where Tennessee faces a situation of beat Vanderbilt and they make a bowl; lose to Vandy and they don't. The Vols blew it at home last year, they don't this year. That said, I do expect the Commodores to give it a good college try and make it a game.
My Call: Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 20
BYU at California
Want to make this one as simple as possible. BYU already knows they're going bowling and knows they'll be playing in the Miami Beach Bowl. Cal needs this game to get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2011. Desperation will serve them well. They won't get many stops, but the offense steps it up against a tough Cougars defense and it proves to be just enough.
My Call: California 35, BYU 31
Pittsburgh at Miami (FL)
James Connor vs. Duke Johnson. These two may get less publicity than say, Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon among others, but they're two of the best running backs in all of college football. Pittsburgh is playing for a spot in a bowl game while Miami is just looking to get back on track in their last game before wherever their bowl destination will take them. Plus a win would guarantee them a winning season. Obviously Miami expects better than 7-5 and I wouldn't be too surprised if their coach Al Golden is feeling some heat. That heat would only intensify if the Canes lose their third straight game, but I think they'll bounce back with a hard fought victory.
My Call: Miami 28, Pittsburgh 27
Washington at Washington State
Apple Cup time! I have no real rhyme or reason behind this pick other than the game is in Pullman and I know the Cougars will be fully ready to go in this one. Washington already has bowl eligibility locked up, Wazzu's bowl game is right here. They pull the upset.
My Call: Washington State 44, Washington 41
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Top 25 Predictions (sans Iron Bowl)
As always, keep in mind that these are AP Poll rankings. So FSU happens to be number one in this poll even though they not be #1 in the poll that actually matters. I went 28-12 this past weekend to put my season prediction record at 306-110 on the season. Pretty solid numbers, I'd say. Gonna look to keep it going through the end of bowl season.
Florida at #1 Florida State
In terms of sheer style points, FSU wouldn't get very many on a weekly basis given their penchant in 2014 of winning many close games. I guess that's the price you pay for being the defending national champion though and being on a now 27 game winning streak dating back to 2012, you're gonna get everyone's best shot. I'm not expecting things to really be any different in this game against in-state rival Florida. Like Boston College, I just don't think the Gators have enough offense.
My Call: Florida State 24, Florida 17
#3 Oregon at Oregon State
Football's version of the Civil War happens this week. Oregon has national championship aspirations on the line against a Beavers team that has to win to go to a bowl. Although that'll be the furthest thing from their minds; wrecking Oregon's season would make this season's ups and downs worth it and then some if the Beavers could pull off this surprising upset. So, does it happen? Nah, I don't think so. Marcus Mariotta should deliver another stellar performance which should allow the Ducks to gradually take control after a tight first half.
My Call: Oregon 38, Oregon State 24
#4 Mississippi State at #18 Ole Miss
Like Auburn, Ole Miss has seen their national title hopes go up in smoke the last few weeks but can still make their season a worthwhile one by beating an in-state rival with national championship hopes. Unlike Auburn, the Rebels will have the home crowd on their side. I fully expect they'll show up to this one unlike in the 30-0 loss to Arkansas. A beat up but fired up Ole Miss squad will put the Bulldogs to the test, but I think Mississippi State will pass it and take the Egg Bowl.
My Call: Mississippi State 23, Ole Miss 20
Texas Tech vs. #5 Baylor (at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
Only question I have is how ugly this game will be. Oklahoma State kept it a bit tighter than I epectd against Baylor in a 4-28 loss. Will Texas Tech? Probably not. The Bears will get themselves some solid style points with a commanding victory over the Red Raiders.
My Call: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 27
#6 TCU at Texas
Almost. TCU was that close to seeing their title hopes go up in smoke in embarrassing fashion, but they recovered just in time to beat Kansas 34-30. Texas doesn't have to worry about a bowl game here as they became bowl eligible by beating Oklahoma State, but like other underdog in-state rivals, they'll also have a chance to play spoiler. I'm not too worried about their defense showing up, it's their offense. They'll give the Horned Frogs all they want, but I just don't have quite enough faith in the Texas offense to make them the pick. TCU's hopes stay alive.
My Call: TCU 27, Texas 20
Michigan at #7 Ohio State
"The Game" hasn't been such a ton of late as Ohio State has dominated this rivalry since the 2000s. Although last year's was certainly a classic; a 42-41 Buckeye win in Ann Arbor that almost shocked the entire college football world. Michigan winning this season would do exactly that, but it won't happen. They're in the exact same position as Oregon State, playing for their bowl lives. However, that will also be the thing furthest from their minds. This Wolverines team is not good and has a lame duck coach at the helm. The Buckeyes should have their act more together in this one than it was in the Indiana game and it should lead to a cozy victory.
My Call: Ohio State 42, Michigan 21
#16 Georgia Tech at #8 Georgia
Clean Old-Fashioned Hate. That's the nickname given to this game between the Georgia rivals. Other than 2008, Georgia has won every meeting between the two teams since 2001. The Yellow Jackets would love to change that, but I don't think they have the defense to make it happen. Both teams should be able to put up points, but the Bulldogs should be able to use Nick Chubb to gradually wear down that Jackets defense and take control.
My Call: Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 31
Stanford at #9 UCLA
Good thing for the Cardinal that they got bowl eligible with the win over Cal in their rivalry game because I don't think it would have happened here against UCLA. You see where I'm going with this prediction from that sentence, don't you?
My Call: UCLA 31, Stanford 14
#10 Michigan State at Penn State
In a lot of cases, I do think the Nittany Lions would be headed for a serious butt kicking. However, they're at home and I'm sure Beaver Stadium will be ready for a top 10 MSU team coming to town. Penn State may be able to hang in there defensively, but they're too much of a mess on the offensive side of the ball while the Spartans are at least halfway competent on the offensive line.
My Call: Michigan State 21, Penn State 16
Kansas at #11 Kansas State
Sunflower Showdown really won't prove to be much of a showdown. There's only so far effort will get the Jayhawks on the road. They'll bring a solid defensive effort but won't be able to score anywhere close to enough points for the win.
My Call: Kansas State 28, Kansas 6
#13 Arizona State at #12 Arizona
Territorial Cup rights are on the line and so could a Pac-12 South championship. That is, if UCLA loses to Stanford at home. Even if UCLA wins and there is no Pac-12 South title on the line, winning a rivalry game is always plenty to play for. As of now, Arizona starting QB Anu Solomon is questionable after getting hurt in U of A's win over Utah on the road. I'm gonna expect him to give it a go as should the Sun Devils. In a lower scoring type of game, I'll roll with the Sun Devils. Their starting QB has fewer question marks surrounding his health, plus I'm guessing ASU will want to make amends for their last road game; which was a 35-27 losing disaster at Oregon State.
My Call: Arizona State 27, Arizona 24
#22 Minnesota at #14 Wisconsin
Winner of this game not only wins Paul Bunyan's Axe, but will also get a date with Ohio State in the B1G (Big 10) Championship Game. Just two Saturdays ago, Melvin Gordon ran for a FBS record 408 yards in Wisconsin's win over Nebraska. But he saw that record broken by Oklahoma running back Samaje Perine. Gordon congratulated him and the two exchanged friendly texts, but I wouldn't be surprised if deep down, Gordon wasn't happy to see his record broken so quickly. I'm gonna say he takes that out a bit on the Golden Gophers and leads the Badgers to a hard fought rivalry victory, keeping the axe still with Wisconsin, where it's been since 2004.
My Call: Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 24
Arkansas at #17 Missouri
Talk about going from the outhouse to the penthouse. That's the case with Arkansas; who hadn't won a SEC game since 2012 until shutting out both LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks. Their most recent victory was over the Rebels by a 30-0 final. Can they take that act on the road? I'm certainly not expecting a shutout or a multiple touchdown victory, but I'll drink the kool-aid and call for a close Razorback victory here. I may end up regretting this pick, but if I were to pick Mizzou, I think it's possible I'd regret that too. Yeah, this is one of those games too close to call and where nothing would really surprise me. Just throwing the dart and hoping for the best.
My Call: Arkansas 20, Missouri 17
Western Kentucky at #19 Marshall
Back at home, the Thundering Herd shouldn't have the issues they had on the road against UAB. Unfortunately it won't get them a shot in the College Football Playoff, but going 12-0 in a season would certainly count for something. Rakeem Cato and Co. make it happen convincingly.
My Call: Marshall 37, Western Kentucky 20
#21 Colorado State at Air Force
Air Force has already walked home this year with the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, beating both Army and Navy en route to what will be a bowl game of some kind. They can also take the Ram-Falcon Trophy as well with a win here over the 21st ranked Rams; whom head coach Jim McElwain has done a great job with. I think the Falcons took last week against San Diego State off with their minds fully set on this one. And I predict they take it in overtime by a field goal.
My Call: Air Force 33, Colorado State 30
South Carolina at #23 Clemson
Wish I knew the status of Clemson QB Deshaun Watson for this game. Unfortunately Clemson themselves doesn't seem to have a clue. Watson is the true freshman QB who is a million times better than Clemson's senior backup QB, Cole Stoudt, who is mostly awful. He has missed essentially five games this year for the Tigers due to knee issues. If Watson goes, I think Clemson would end their five game losing streak in the Battle of the Palmetto State. If it's Stoudt, my guess is even a mediocre Gamecocks squad would sneak by with win number six in a row. Since Watson hasn't played really at all in their last five games, I have to take South Carolina. This pick is update to change, though should Watson be declared good to go.
My Call: South Carolina 30, Clemson 23
Kentucky at #24 Louisville
Governor's Cup is the name of this rivalry; the winner will take home that trophy. Kentucky not only wants to win that, but they also want to win the game in order to become bowl eligible and end a three game skid in this rivalry. For Louisville, the opportunity exists to extend the win streak to four and perhaps get a bump up in the ACC bowl picture. Problem for Kentucky is this game is in Louisville and the Wildcats have not shown they can win away from their home stadium this season. I don't believe that will start to happen here. Louisville takes it.
My Call: Louisville 31, Kentucky 13
Utah State at #25 Boise State
Simple enough for the Broncos. A win on their smurf turf over Utah State gets them a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, which they'd host. Lose and it opens the door for two teams, their opponents in this one as well as Colorado State. If the Aggies can march into Boise and get a win, they'd be the host team in the MWC title game should Air Force beat Colorado State. If the Rams beat Air Force though and Utah State wins, it'd be Colorado State hosting the game. I'm thinking it'll stay simple though. Boise State is extremely tough to beat on their home field and even though Utah State has turned themselves into a tough team/program who will hang in, my guess is the Broncos will find a way to pull it out.
My Call: Boise State 31, Utah State 27
Florida at #1 Florida State
In terms of sheer style points, FSU wouldn't get very many on a weekly basis given their penchant in 2014 of winning many close games. I guess that's the price you pay for being the defending national champion though and being on a now 27 game winning streak dating back to 2012, you're gonna get everyone's best shot. I'm not expecting things to really be any different in this game against in-state rival Florida. Like Boston College, I just don't think the Gators have enough offense.
My Call: Florida State 24, Florida 17
#3 Oregon at Oregon State
Football's version of the Civil War happens this week. Oregon has national championship aspirations on the line against a Beavers team that has to win to go to a bowl. Although that'll be the furthest thing from their minds; wrecking Oregon's season would make this season's ups and downs worth it and then some if the Beavers could pull off this surprising upset. So, does it happen? Nah, I don't think so. Marcus Mariotta should deliver another stellar performance which should allow the Ducks to gradually take control after a tight first half.
My Call: Oregon 38, Oregon State 24
#4 Mississippi State at #18 Ole Miss
Like Auburn, Ole Miss has seen their national title hopes go up in smoke the last few weeks but can still make their season a worthwhile one by beating an in-state rival with national championship hopes. Unlike Auburn, the Rebels will have the home crowd on their side. I fully expect they'll show up to this one unlike in the 30-0 loss to Arkansas. A beat up but fired up Ole Miss squad will put the Bulldogs to the test, but I think Mississippi State will pass it and take the Egg Bowl.
My Call: Mississippi State 23, Ole Miss 20
Texas Tech vs. #5 Baylor (at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
Only question I have is how ugly this game will be. Oklahoma State kept it a bit tighter than I epectd against Baylor in a 4-28 loss. Will Texas Tech? Probably not. The Bears will get themselves some solid style points with a commanding victory over the Red Raiders.
My Call: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 27
#6 TCU at Texas
Almost. TCU was that close to seeing their title hopes go up in smoke in embarrassing fashion, but they recovered just in time to beat Kansas 34-30. Texas doesn't have to worry about a bowl game here as they became bowl eligible by beating Oklahoma State, but like other underdog in-state rivals, they'll also have a chance to play spoiler. I'm not too worried about their defense showing up, it's their offense. They'll give the Horned Frogs all they want, but I just don't have quite enough faith in the Texas offense to make them the pick. TCU's hopes stay alive.
My Call: TCU 27, Texas 20
Michigan at #7 Ohio State
"The Game" hasn't been such a ton of late as Ohio State has dominated this rivalry since the 2000s. Although last year's was certainly a classic; a 42-41 Buckeye win in Ann Arbor that almost shocked the entire college football world. Michigan winning this season would do exactly that, but it won't happen. They're in the exact same position as Oregon State, playing for their bowl lives. However, that will also be the thing furthest from their minds. This Wolverines team is not good and has a lame duck coach at the helm. The Buckeyes should have their act more together in this one than it was in the Indiana game and it should lead to a cozy victory.
My Call: Ohio State 42, Michigan 21
#16 Georgia Tech at #8 Georgia
Clean Old-Fashioned Hate. That's the nickname given to this game between the Georgia rivals. Other than 2008, Georgia has won every meeting between the two teams since 2001. The Yellow Jackets would love to change that, but I don't think they have the defense to make it happen. Both teams should be able to put up points, but the Bulldogs should be able to use Nick Chubb to gradually wear down that Jackets defense and take control.
My Call: Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 31
Stanford at #9 UCLA
Good thing for the Cardinal that they got bowl eligible with the win over Cal in their rivalry game because I don't think it would have happened here against UCLA. You see where I'm going with this prediction from that sentence, don't you?
My Call: UCLA 31, Stanford 14
#10 Michigan State at Penn State
In a lot of cases, I do think the Nittany Lions would be headed for a serious butt kicking. However, they're at home and I'm sure Beaver Stadium will be ready for a top 10 MSU team coming to town. Penn State may be able to hang in there defensively, but they're too much of a mess on the offensive side of the ball while the Spartans are at least halfway competent on the offensive line.
My Call: Michigan State 21, Penn State 16
Kansas at #11 Kansas State
Sunflower Showdown really won't prove to be much of a showdown. There's only so far effort will get the Jayhawks on the road. They'll bring a solid defensive effort but won't be able to score anywhere close to enough points for the win.
My Call: Kansas State 28, Kansas 6
#13 Arizona State at #12 Arizona
Territorial Cup rights are on the line and so could a Pac-12 South championship. That is, if UCLA loses to Stanford at home. Even if UCLA wins and there is no Pac-12 South title on the line, winning a rivalry game is always plenty to play for. As of now, Arizona starting QB Anu Solomon is questionable after getting hurt in U of A's win over Utah on the road. I'm gonna expect him to give it a go as should the Sun Devils. In a lower scoring type of game, I'll roll with the Sun Devils. Their starting QB has fewer question marks surrounding his health, plus I'm guessing ASU will want to make amends for their last road game; which was a 35-27 losing disaster at Oregon State.
My Call: Arizona State 27, Arizona 24
#22 Minnesota at #14 Wisconsin
Winner of this game not only wins Paul Bunyan's Axe, but will also get a date with Ohio State in the B1G (Big 10) Championship Game. Just two Saturdays ago, Melvin Gordon ran for a FBS record 408 yards in Wisconsin's win over Nebraska. But he saw that record broken by Oklahoma running back Samaje Perine. Gordon congratulated him and the two exchanged friendly texts, but I wouldn't be surprised if deep down, Gordon wasn't happy to see his record broken so quickly. I'm gonna say he takes that out a bit on the Golden Gophers and leads the Badgers to a hard fought rivalry victory, keeping the axe still with Wisconsin, where it's been since 2004.
My Call: Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 24
Arkansas at #17 Missouri
Talk about going from the outhouse to the penthouse. That's the case with Arkansas; who hadn't won a SEC game since 2012 until shutting out both LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks. Their most recent victory was over the Rebels by a 30-0 final. Can they take that act on the road? I'm certainly not expecting a shutout or a multiple touchdown victory, but I'll drink the kool-aid and call for a close Razorback victory here. I may end up regretting this pick, but if I were to pick Mizzou, I think it's possible I'd regret that too. Yeah, this is one of those games too close to call and where nothing would really surprise me. Just throwing the dart and hoping for the best.
My Call: Arkansas 20, Missouri 17
Western Kentucky at #19 Marshall
Back at home, the Thundering Herd shouldn't have the issues they had on the road against UAB. Unfortunately it won't get them a shot in the College Football Playoff, but going 12-0 in a season would certainly count for something. Rakeem Cato and Co. make it happen convincingly.
My Call: Marshall 37, Western Kentucky 20
#21 Colorado State at Air Force
Air Force has already walked home this year with the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, beating both Army and Navy en route to what will be a bowl game of some kind. They can also take the Ram-Falcon Trophy as well with a win here over the 21st ranked Rams; whom head coach Jim McElwain has done a great job with. I think the Falcons took last week against San Diego State off with their minds fully set on this one. And I predict they take it in overtime by a field goal.
My Call: Air Force 33, Colorado State 30
South Carolina at #23 Clemson
Wish I knew the status of Clemson QB Deshaun Watson for this game. Unfortunately Clemson themselves doesn't seem to have a clue. Watson is the true freshman QB who is a million times better than Clemson's senior backup QB, Cole Stoudt, who is mostly awful. He has missed essentially five games this year for the Tigers due to knee issues. If Watson goes, I think Clemson would end their five game losing streak in the Battle of the Palmetto State. If it's Stoudt, my guess is even a mediocre Gamecocks squad would sneak by with win number six in a row. Since Watson hasn't played really at all in their last five games, I have to take South Carolina. This pick is update to change, though should Watson be declared good to go.
My Call: South Carolina 30, Clemson 23
Kentucky at #24 Louisville
Governor's Cup is the name of this rivalry; the winner will take home that trophy. Kentucky not only wants to win that, but they also want to win the game in order to become bowl eligible and end a three game skid in this rivalry. For Louisville, the opportunity exists to extend the win streak to four and perhaps get a bump up in the ACC bowl picture. Problem for Kentucky is this game is in Louisville and the Wildcats have not shown they can win away from their home stadium this season. I don't believe that will start to happen here. Louisville takes it.
My Call: Louisville 31, Kentucky 13
Utah State at #25 Boise State
Simple enough for the Broncos. A win on their smurf turf over Utah State gets them a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, which they'd host. Lose and it opens the door for two teams, their opponents in this one as well as Colorado State. If the Aggies can march into Boise and get a win, they'd be the host team in the MWC title game should Air Force beat Colorado State. If the Rams beat Air Force though and Utah State wins, it'd be Colorado State hosting the game. I'm thinking it'll stay simple though. Boise State is extremely tough to beat on their home field and even though Utah State has turned themselves into a tough team/program who will hang in, my guess is the Broncos will find a way to pull it out.
My Call: Boise State 31, Utah State 27
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Iron Bowl Game Preview and Prediction (at Alabama)
Does Auburn have another Chris Davis on the squad that can stun the Crimson Tide at the very last second to beat them in that fashion for the second straight year? I sure hope so. Although Auburn did get back in the win column, they did a lot of slogging around in what was a fairly ugly 31-7 win over FCS Samford. Believe it or not, Samford was actually ahead 7-0 midway through the second quarter. Like their Iron Bowl counterparts, Alabama sorta did the same in their 48-14 win against another FCS team in Western Carolina. They fell behind 7-0 and led only 17-14 midway through the second period before taking command. Both teams will be looking for quicker starts in this game. Last year's Iron Bowl was a game for the ages. Alabama led 21-7 late in the second quarter and seemed like they may be ready to take control in the 4th quarter after a long 99 yard touchdown pass from now Cincinnati Bengal A.J. McCarron to superstar WR Amari Cooper which broke a 21-21 tie. However, Nick Marshall found a wide open Sammie Coates down the sideline to tie the game at 28 with just under 40 seconds left before Chris Davis returned a missed field goal from the back of the end zone to get Auburn an exciting 34-28 win and a regular season SEC championship.
Kicking issues rued that day for Alabama as their regular kicker, Cade Foster, missed three field goals. Two were shanked to the left, the last one was blocked. He didn't even try the 59 yard attempt which was returned by Davis. That honor went to current Crimson Tide kicker Adam Griffith; and the rest was history. Unfortunately we can't spend all the rest of time just living in that moment. Sooner or later, we have to focus on this upcoming game between the two long time rivals. Alabama enters this Iron Bowl with a 10-1 record, 6-1 in SEC play. Their lone loss came on the road against Ole Miss by a score of 23-17. Road wins this season have come over Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU. Home wins have come over the likes of Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Western Carolina while their lone neutral site game came in Atlanta, which was a 10 point win over West Virginia. The Crimson Tide also lead the all-time Iron Bowl series by a count of 42-35-1. But Auburn's last two wins have been quite thrilling; the other coming in 2010... the 'Camback' at Bryant Denny Stadium in which Auburn rallied from a 24-0 deficit to win. That 2010 Auburn team led by Cam Newton would go on to win the national championship.
Auburn's defense will need to come up with by far their best performance of the season to have any chance in Tuscaloosa. The player who will very likely give them the most trouble is Amari Cooper. Forget the 99 yard score from a year ago, Auburn's pass defense has been so poor of late against receivers nowhere near as good as Cooper is, so he presents a real nightmare problem. Getting him the ball will be senior QB Blake Sims. Most people didn't actually expect Sims to be the starting QB for this team prior to the season. A lot of people thought it would be Florida State transfer Jacob Coker, who spent last season backing up Jameis Winston. He's done a nice job this season, completing 62 percent of his passes on 301 attempts to go along with 20 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. And yes, A LOT of his production has been tossed Amari Cooper's way. Cooper has caught 90 passes for 1349 yards and 11 TD catches. I imagine he'll be part of the 2015 NFL Draft class even though he could come back to college for another year as he's giving NFL scouts images of A.J. Green and another former Alabama player, Julio Jones. Those 1349 yards represent more than half of the 2674 yards Sims has thrown for. Alabama's second most productive receiver has been senior DeAndrew White, whose stats are nowhere close to Cooper's. He has 30 receptions for 319 yards and 2 TD catches. Blake Sims, by the way, has added 279 yards and 5 touchdown rushes on the ground, so this is a guy capable of making things happen with his legs. When Sims isn't throwing to Cooper or rushing for touchdowns, he hands off to two excellent running backs in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who have split the heavy workload amongst themselves this season. The junior Yeldon has rushed for 758 yards and 6 touchdowns on 151 yards while the sophomore Henry has rushed for 682 yards and 7 TD runs on 134 carries. At 224 and 241 yards respectively, these two bring a massive punch for opposing defenses who dare try getting in their way. Yeldon may join Cooper as a first round pick in the 2015 Draft if he also decides to come out after this season.
Contending with the offense will be a tough chore for Auburn, but the offense will have about as tough a chore against the Crimson Tide defense. The Tide defense gives up an average of just 14.5 points per game, which is good for second best in the FBS. Only the Ole Miss defense has given up less per game at 13.5 points per game. Alabama's defense is also second in the FBS in terms of yards given up per game rushing, allowing just a touch over 85 yards per game. Only Penn State's defense gives up less rushing yards per game at 81.5; but that comes against lesser competition. The pass defense isn't bad either, being in the top 30 in terms of yards given up per game. This team gets outstanding all-around performance rather than just counting on a single player, but the three standouts to me (at least in terms of actual production) would be linebackers Xzavier Dickson and Reggie Ragland and the biggest standout, safety Landon Collins. Dickson has had himself a very nice senior season, leading the Tide in sacks with 7 and also in tackles for loss with 9.5. Reggie Ragland seems to be following the leads of guys like Rolando McClain, Donta Hightower, C.J. Mosley and other recent Alabama inside linebackers to the NFL. He's recorded 8.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks to go along with an interception and 83 total tackles in his junior season. There have been some very good safeties from Alabama to go to the NFL in recent seasons, including Mark Barron and Ha Ha (Lol yes, that's what football people know him by) Clinton-Dix. However, the best one of the bunch may well be Collins. The junior safety has recorded three interceptions to go along with five pass breakups, eight pass breakups, 2.5 tackles for loss and 75 total tackles this season. Like Cooper (and maybe Yeldon), there's no doubt Collins will hear his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft like Barron and Clinton-Dix did in years past. I'd imagine most likely in this coming class as well.
Look, as an Auburn fan through and through, I hope like hell that the Tigers win this game. However, I've seen nothing over the last five weeks that tells me it's gonna happen. I think this Alabama team could be had if this Auburn team could actually play mistake free football, but mistake after mistake has been a major problem and a big reason why Auburn has lost three of their last six games and why a once very promising season looks as though it could end up as nothing more than a Music City Bowl invitation at the beginning of December. I'll be a little nice and say Auburn keeps it closer than three touchdowns, but that's about as far as I'm willing to go. Alabama is just playing leaps and bounds better on both sides of the ball and I very much doubt they'll make the same mistakes Auburn makes week in and week out. This should lead to them keeping their spot amongst the top 4 teams in the inaugural college football playoff. Hoping to be wrong, but....
My Call: Alabama 38, Auburn 20
Kicking issues rued that day for Alabama as their regular kicker, Cade Foster, missed three field goals. Two were shanked to the left, the last one was blocked. He didn't even try the 59 yard attempt which was returned by Davis. That honor went to current Crimson Tide kicker Adam Griffith; and the rest was history. Unfortunately we can't spend all the rest of time just living in that moment. Sooner or later, we have to focus on this upcoming game between the two long time rivals. Alabama enters this Iron Bowl with a 10-1 record, 6-1 in SEC play. Their lone loss came on the road against Ole Miss by a score of 23-17. Road wins this season have come over Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU. Home wins have come over the likes of Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Western Carolina while their lone neutral site game came in Atlanta, which was a 10 point win over West Virginia. The Crimson Tide also lead the all-time Iron Bowl series by a count of 42-35-1. But Auburn's last two wins have been quite thrilling; the other coming in 2010... the 'Camback' at Bryant Denny Stadium in which Auburn rallied from a 24-0 deficit to win. That 2010 Auburn team led by Cam Newton would go on to win the national championship.
Auburn's defense will need to come up with by far their best performance of the season to have any chance in Tuscaloosa. The player who will very likely give them the most trouble is Amari Cooper. Forget the 99 yard score from a year ago, Auburn's pass defense has been so poor of late against receivers nowhere near as good as Cooper is, so he presents a real nightmare problem. Getting him the ball will be senior QB Blake Sims. Most people didn't actually expect Sims to be the starting QB for this team prior to the season. A lot of people thought it would be Florida State transfer Jacob Coker, who spent last season backing up Jameis Winston. He's done a nice job this season, completing 62 percent of his passes on 301 attempts to go along with 20 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. And yes, A LOT of his production has been tossed Amari Cooper's way. Cooper has caught 90 passes for 1349 yards and 11 TD catches. I imagine he'll be part of the 2015 NFL Draft class even though he could come back to college for another year as he's giving NFL scouts images of A.J. Green and another former Alabama player, Julio Jones. Those 1349 yards represent more than half of the 2674 yards Sims has thrown for. Alabama's second most productive receiver has been senior DeAndrew White, whose stats are nowhere close to Cooper's. He has 30 receptions for 319 yards and 2 TD catches. Blake Sims, by the way, has added 279 yards and 5 touchdown rushes on the ground, so this is a guy capable of making things happen with his legs. When Sims isn't throwing to Cooper or rushing for touchdowns, he hands off to two excellent running backs in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who have split the heavy workload amongst themselves this season. The junior Yeldon has rushed for 758 yards and 6 touchdowns on 151 yards while the sophomore Henry has rushed for 682 yards and 7 TD runs on 134 carries. At 224 and 241 yards respectively, these two bring a massive punch for opposing defenses who dare try getting in their way. Yeldon may join Cooper as a first round pick in the 2015 Draft if he also decides to come out after this season.
Contending with the offense will be a tough chore for Auburn, but the offense will have about as tough a chore against the Crimson Tide defense. The Tide defense gives up an average of just 14.5 points per game, which is good for second best in the FBS. Only the Ole Miss defense has given up less per game at 13.5 points per game. Alabama's defense is also second in the FBS in terms of yards given up per game rushing, allowing just a touch over 85 yards per game. Only Penn State's defense gives up less rushing yards per game at 81.5; but that comes against lesser competition. The pass defense isn't bad either, being in the top 30 in terms of yards given up per game. This team gets outstanding all-around performance rather than just counting on a single player, but the three standouts to me (at least in terms of actual production) would be linebackers Xzavier Dickson and Reggie Ragland and the biggest standout, safety Landon Collins. Dickson has had himself a very nice senior season, leading the Tide in sacks with 7 and also in tackles for loss with 9.5. Reggie Ragland seems to be following the leads of guys like Rolando McClain, Donta Hightower, C.J. Mosley and other recent Alabama inside linebackers to the NFL. He's recorded 8.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks to go along with an interception and 83 total tackles in his junior season. There have been some very good safeties from Alabama to go to the NFL in recent seasons, including Mark Barron and Ha Ha (Lol yes, that's what football people know him by) Clinton-Dix. However, the best one of the bunch may well be Collins. The junior safety has recorded three interceptions to go along with five pass breakups, eight pass breakups, 2.5 tackles for loss and 75 total tackles this season. Like Cooper (and maybe Yeldon), there's no doubt Collins will hear his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft like Barron and Clinton-Dix did in years past. I'd imagine most likely in this coming class as well.
Look, as an Auburn fan through and through, I hope like hell that the Tigers win this game. However, I've seen nothing over the last five weeks that tells me it's gonna happen. I think this Alabama team could be had if this Auburn team could actually play mistake free football, but mistake after mistake has been a major problem and a big reason why Auburn has lost three of their last six games and why a once very promising season looks as though it could end up as nothing more than a Music City Bowl invitation at the beginning of December. I'll be a little nice and say Auburn keeps it closer than three touchdowns, but that's about as far as I'm willing to go. Alabama is just playing leaps and bounds better on both sides of the ball and I very much doubt they'll make the same mistakes Auburn makes week in and week out. This should lead to them keeping their spot amongst the top 4 teams in the inaugural college football playoff. Hoping to be wrong, but....
My Call: Alabama 38, Auburn 20
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